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Entwicklung eines quantitativen Modells "Nachhaltiges Deutschland" – Band 2

Entwicklung eines quantitativen Modells "Nachhaltiges Deutschland" – Band 2

Band 2: Simulation der Potentiale und Auswirkungen einer Transformation hin zu einer nachhaltigen Gesellschaft
Developing a quantitative model "Sustainable Germany". Volume 2: Simulation potentials and impacts of transforming towards a sustainable society

For the Federal Environment Agency of Germany a consortium of Consideo, adelphi, Ecologic Institute, FEST and sociodimensions developed a quantitative simulation model to run scenarios on the potentials for a transition of society towards sustainability. The model explores the effects of a transition on the environment, climate change, use of resources, the economy, welfare, and happiness. The report is available for download.

The results from this project are documented in four parts:

  1. The quantitative D3 model (D for Deutschland, 3 for society, economy and politics): The report describes the cause and effect model with its more than 4,000 factors and how it can be used. The Federal Environmental Agency can directly use the model to alter and enhance it and to answer different questions.
  2. The simulation of potential transitions towards sustainability and their effects. The report also covers insights on the possibilities and limitations of the simulation of social systems.
  3. The simulation of the shift towards renewable energy (D3 EE model): The report describes an additional simulation model that looks more into the details of the use of renewable energy and its implications for the use of resources as well as its economic effects.
  4. The D3 simulation: The report describes a separate model that can be used as a simulation game to allow e.g. pupils to play the roles of citizens, politicians, or business-people and experience their interdependencies through the lock-in effect and the spillover effects as they are explained in this report at hand.

The D3 model can be used to generate findings on societal interactions in interplay with increasing technical efficiency, social innovations, eco-sufficiency approaches, and socio-economic effects (e.g. rich/poor, migration, aging societies). The goal was to use the "Sustainable Germany" model to better understand the dynamic interaction between the different aspects of the three dimensions of sustainability "ecology", "economy" and "social system") within the planet's carrying capacity and, in doing so, to advance our systematic understanding of sustainable development overall.

The project showed that the simulation of social systems with system dynamics is feasible. To endogenously simulate the behavior of humans it is crucial to translate human motivation into factors and formula. Provided that the change of behavior is emotionally effective an exponential transition through spillover effects between different areas (nutrition, mobility, housing, clothing, etc.) for each social milieu as well as spillover effects between the social milieus seems possible. The effects on the environment, climate, resources, welfare and happiness would be beneficial. The effects on the economy could after a medium term increase become stable on today’s level.


Citation

Neumann, K.; Grimm, F.; Diefenbacher, H.; Hirschnitz-Garbers, M.; Langsdorf, S.; Schipperges, M.; Weiss, D., (2018). Entwicklung eines quantitativen Modells "Nachhaltiges Deutschland" – Band 2: Simulation der Potentiale und Auswirkungen einer Transformation hin zu einer nachhaltigen Gesellschaft. German Environment Agency, Dessau-Roßlau. (avilable in German only)

Language
German
Author(s)
Kai Neumann, Franc Grimm (Consideo)
Hans Diefenbacher (Forschungsstätte der Evangelischen Studiengemeinschaft FEST)
Michael Schipperges (sociodimensions)
Daniel Weiss (adelphi research)
Funding
Publisher
Year
2018
ISSN
1862-4359
Dimension
40 pp.
Project ID
2541
Table of Contents

Inhaltsverzeichnis
Abbildungsverzeichnis
Abkürzungsverzeichnis
Zusammenfassung
Summary
1 Das Projekt und seine Zielsetzung
2 Zusammenfassung der Ergebnisse des Modells und des Projekts
3 Aufbau des Modells (Zusammenfassung aus Band 1)
4 Modellierungsansatz, wissenschaftliche Methode
4.1 Die Wahl des Modellierungsansatzes
4.2 Induktive vs. abduktive Logik - Gültigkeit von Annahmen
5 Grundannahmen zur Simulation menschlichen Verhaltens
5.1 Handlungsmotive - Bounded Rationality und Evolutionspsychologie
5.2 Hintergrund: die Verbreitung von Verhalten
5.3 Mögliche Grenzen des Milieu-Ansatzes
6 Beispiel-Szenarien mit dem D3 Modell
6.1 Das Basis-Szenario
6.2 Szenario 2: Die kritisch-kreativen Milieus starten mit mehr Nachhaltigkeit
6.2.1 Auswirkungen auf die Wohlfahrt:
6.2.2 Auswirkungen auf die Umwelt, Klimagase und Ressourcen-Inanspruchnahme:
6.2.3 Auswirkungen auf die Zufriedenheit in der Bevölkerung:
6.2.4 Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft:
6.3 Szenario 3: Die kritisch-kreativen Milieus machen einen Anfang und die Politik treibt den Ausbau der Erneuerbaren Energien voran
6.4 Szenario 4: Die kritisch-kreativen Milieus machen einen Anfang, die Politik treibt den Ausbau der Erneuerbaren Energien voran und es erfolgt die Verlagerung von Güterverkehr auf Schiene sowie eine Elektrifizierung von Industrieprozessen
6.5 Weitere Szenarien und Anwendungsmöglichkeiten
7 Fazit und Interpretation: "It's the emotions, stupid!"
7.1 Kritische Betrachtung des Modells
7.2 Alles dreht sich um die emotionale Wirksamkeit
8 Literatur

Keywords
Germany, system dynamic modelling