The overall purpose of this study is to clarify which models and scenarios are being used and can be used to explore the developments of biodiversity and ecosystems in light of different assumptions of drivers and policies. The results feed into the second phase of the wider Review on The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB).

The development of scenarios within TEEB is crucial: defining scenarios that are meaningful for the various ecosystem services is a necessary step in assessing ecosystem benefits and the cost of their loss, both in biophysical and in monetary terms.

The TEEB interim report [pdf, 4.8 MB, English] recognised the need to account in the second phase of TEEB on aspects regarding different uses and utilisation levels of biodiversity that affect the future state of biodiversity and the levels of ecosystem service provisions.

The study includes

• an in-depth review of different scenarios and models used to explore future trends in biodiversity loss and ecosystem change and their associated impacts on ecosystem services;
• a summary of the key findings from recent global and regional assessments; and
• a detailed assessment of the limitations of existing models with respect to their suitability for producing robust projections of changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services.

The initial results have been peer-reviewed during an expert workshop, which was organised by Ecologic and held in Brussels on 13 May 2009.

The study concludes by proposing a set of options for suitable models and scenarios to be used in future studies for TEEB and beyond.

The Final Report [pdf, 2.1 MB, English] and the accompanying Appendices [pdf, 2.4 MB, English] are available for download.