The EU-ETS Price Through 2030 and Beyond: A closer look at drivers, models and assumptions
Input material and takeaways from a workshop in Brussels
Pahle, Michael et al. 2022: The EU-ETS price through 2030 and beyond: A closer look at drivers, models and assumptions. Input material and takeaways from a workshop in Brussels. Documentation.
This document presents main takeaways and insights from a workshop organised by the Ariadne Project in Brussels on 30 November 2022. The workshop convened experts from seven organisations that operate carbon market models – academic institutions as well as carbon market analysts.
The goal of the workshop was to discuss in-depth the types of models, implementation details as well as core assumptions employed in the analysis of ETS prices targeted to inform the policy debate. More specifically, the workshop served to take stock of the diversity of approaches, discuss their pros and cons, and identify major sensitivities and arising developments affecting the price of EU Allowances (EUAs) through the end of this decade and beyond. In preparation of the workshop, all participants took part in a survey and provided a short model fact sheet, information about EUA in their default "Green Deal/FF55 COM" scenario, as well as an assessment of what they view as the main price drivers in 2025 and 2030.