The study was commissioned by the Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (BfN) to support the German Federal Government in reporting on the Action Programme for Natural Climate Protection (ANK). Ecologic Institute led the project and was responsible for analysing the action areas peatlands, near-natural water regimes, marine and coastal ecosystems, wilderness and protected areas, forest ecosystems, research and capacity building, as well as cooperation within the EU and internationally.

The study follows two central analytical strands:

1. Assessment of the implementation status of all ANK measures, including the number of projects, area coverage, committed and disbursed funds.
2. Assessment of the expected impacts, particularly with regard to greenhouse gas mitigation, biodiversity, and ecological resilience.

The analysis is based on theory-driven impact models for each action area and for the programme as a whole. These are complemented by indicators, monitoring data, and qualitative and quantitative information. A barrier analysis examines structural and administrative challenges.

Scope of the measures analysed

For the implementation analysis, all 121 funding guidelines and individual measures, as well as two accompanying measures, were included if they had been completed, launched, or were in preparation by the cut-off date of 1 January 2025.
The impact analysis, by contrast, focuses on the 81 measures that had already been launched or completed by the cut-off date, enabling a robust assessment of their expected effects.

Implementation status and impacts

By the cut-off date, more than 9,500 projects had been approved, covering over 2.2 million hectares. Most measures are still in early implementation phases, which limits the availability of data for area-based impact assessments. Delays due to budgetary regulations, coordination processes, and administrative requirements affected the dynamics of fund commitment and disbursement.

For 15 advanced measures, initial quantitative climate mitigation effects could be estimated: around 1.3 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in 2045. Measures in peatland restoration, near-natural water regimes, and forest ecosystems show particularly strong potential. Since most projects are only beginning to be implemented, the long-term impact potential of the ANK is expected to be significantly higher.

The analysed measures also show clear positive effects on biodiversity, water quality, hydrological functions, climate adaptation, and flood protection. These synergies underline the importance of nature-based approaches in the action areas assessed by Ecologic Institute.

Need for further development

Challenges arise, among other things, in terms of capacity, land availability, coordination, and knowledge transfer. The study recommends strengthened monitoring, more precise impact targets, and long-term incentive structures to further increase the effectiveness of ANK measures.