The data and charts in this brief update those presented in our January 2026 paper: Europe's Selective Blindness on Gas: US LNG and the Limits of Supply Diversification. This brief draws on the most recent (2 July 2026) version of Bruegel’s European natural gas imports dataset, covering the first half of 2026.

Our analysis of Europe’s gas import portfolio during the first semester of 2026 shows a paradoxical situation:

• Europe aims to diversify its gas supply portfolio. However, import data analysed in this brief show an uninterrupted decline in diversification.
• During the first half of 2026, Europe’s two dominant suppliers – the US and Russia – increased both the absolute volumes exported to the European Economic Area and their shares of Europe’s import portfolio.
• Europe’s enhanced dependence on LNG imports from the US worsens its exposure to geopolitical pressure at a time when US foreign policy and its disruptive impact on global energy markets are more volatile than ever.
• Collective risk exposure is further heightened by the EU’s likely failure to meet gas storage filling targets before the winter begins.

The structural solution to Europe’s energy import risks are well known: domestic renewables and storage, electrification, targeted use of low-carbon feedstocks and fuels. By accelerating the energy transition, Europe can rapidly reduce its exposure to the costs and risks arising from its heavy reliance on gas, oil, coal and nuclear fuels imports, while also achieving its climate targets.

Unlike most EU energy security analyses, this paper considers the gas import portfolio of the entire European Economic Area (EEA) instead of treating Norway as an external supplier. In other words, we consider EU imports from countries outside the EEA. This approach reflects economic, infrastructural and geopolitical realities and provides a clearer picture of major recent shifts.