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EU Greenhouse Gas Emission Budget

Publication

EU Greenhouse Gas Emission Budget

Implications for EU Climate Policies
What is the EU greenhouse gas emission budget for the century?

Estimates of the EU's greenhouse gas emission budgets for the rest of the century vary considerably but have one thing in common: The EU's emission budget is very small and shrinking rapidly. If the EU's emission budgets were based only on least-costs considerations, it would range between meager 50 Gt (in 1.5°scenarios) or 90 Gt (in 2°C scenarios) for the period 2020 and 2100. With current annual emissions of about 4 Gt, the EU would have used up its 1.5°C budget by about 2032.

In 2° scenarios, the EU budget could be exhausted by around 2042. If, instead, the budget were distributed purely on the basis of equity considerations, the EU emission budget would be much smaller. If, for example, the EU's emission budgets were based on expected EU's share in the global population in 2050, the budget for the period 2021 and 2100 would be 6.9 Gt in 2°C scenarios; the EU would have already exceeded its 1.5°C budget by 10.3Gt in 2020. These are the key messages of a new Ecologic report. The report is available for download.

The report's findings at a workshop in Brussels on 22 January 2018.


Citation

Meyer-Ohlendorf, Nils; Voß, Philipp; Velten, Eike; Görlach, Benjamin: EU Greenhouse Gas Emission Budget: Implications for EU Climate Policies (2018)

Language
English
Year
2018
Dimension
41 pp.
Project ID
2120
Table of Contents

1 Introduction
2 Implementing the Paris Agreement – which long-term targets and emission budgets for the world?
2.1 Global emission budgets and trajectories associated with 2°C and 1.5°C
2.2 Negative emissions and overshooting
2.3 Implication for global emissions until 2030
3 EU emission budgets, trajectories and long-term targets
3.1 What are the necessary reductions for the EU?
3.2 What is the EU’s remaining emission budget for rest of the century?
3.3 Mind the gap (1): Has the EU adopted the necessary reduction targets?
3.4 Mind the Gap (2): Are ETS and non ETS emission budgets compatible with EU targets and overall EU emission budgets?
3.4.1 ETS and non ETS emission budgets until 2030: Compatible with EU 2030 targets and overall EU emission budgets?
3.4.2 ETS and non ETS emission budgets until 2050: Compatible with EU 2050 aspiration and overall EU emission budgets?
3.5 How to close the gap: Which EU reduction targets, trajectories and budgets?
4 2030 EU policy architecture – fit for 2050?
4.1 EU Emissions Trading System: What are the necessary reductions until 2050?
4.2 Non-ETS sectors: What are the necessary emission reductions for 2050?
4.3 Required negative emissions
4.3.1 LULUCF
4.3.2 Bioenergy-CCS and Direct Air Capture
5 Annexes
5.1 Annex 1: Required reductions in percentage points for 2050 and 2100 (IPCC AR 5)
5.2 Annex 2: Underlying calculations for Section 3.4
5.2.1 Calculating emissions in the ETS sector
5.2.2 Calculating the flexibility of different starting years in the non-ETS sector
6 Literature

Keywords
energy and climate policies, 2030, political, legal and economic effects, suggestions for action, Europe