ECNO’s 2026 update provides the first comprehensive assessment of all 27 final National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs). It evaluates whether Member States’ contributions and policy frameworks are sufficient to meet the EU’s 2030 climate and energy targets. The results show a clearer and more complete picture than previous assessments. However, the overall conclusion remains unchanged: despite some progress, the EU is still not fully on track to meet its 2030 targets.

Why NECPs matter

Achieving climate neutrality requires more than long-term ambition. It depends on credible short- and medium-term planning that translates EU targets into concrete national action. NECPs are the central planning instrument under EU law. They define how Member States intend to contribute to EU-wide climate and energy objectives, including emissions reductions, renewable energy deployment, and energy efficiency improvements.

To be effective, NECPs must do two things:

• set adequate national contributions in line with EU targets, and
• outline a robust policy mix capable of delivering these contributions.

Without both, targets risk remaining aspirational rather than actionable.

Scope and approach

This report assesses all 27 final NECPs across five key areas:

• greenhouse gas emissions under the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR),
• natural carbon sinks (LULUCF),
• renewable energy,
• energy consumption, and
• the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies.

The analysis distinguishes between two types of gaps:

• contribution gaps – where national targets fall short of what is required at EU level, and
• policy gaps – where existing and planned measures are insufficient to meet those targets.

Key findings: 

• Renewables: Previous assessments suggested that the EU could meet its renewable energy target in aggregate. The updated analysis indicates that a small gap remains, with national contributions and projected outcomes falling just short of the 2030 target.
• Emissions: The projected gap in emissions reductions under the Effort Sharing Regulation has decreased. However, the EU still risks missing its 2030 target by around two percentage points, as policy measures in several Member States remain insufficient.
• Energy consumption: Despite some improvements, policy gaps persist across most Member States, and current projections indicate a substantial shortfall in both final and primary energy consumption targets. This highlights ongoing difficulties in implementing effective energy efficiency measures across sectors.
• Natural sinks: Projected removals remain below required levels. The EU is likely to miss its 2030 LULUCF target, with significant gaps in several large Member States.
• Fossil fuel subsidies: While some Member States report no remaining direct subsidies or plans for phase-out, most still lack clear and comprehensive strategies—particularly for indirect subsidies such as tax exemptions.

Implications for policy

The findings highlight a persistent disconnect between targets and implementation.

To close this gap, Member States need to:

• strengthen national contributions, particularly for renewables and energy efficiency,
• enhance policy frameworks to ensure delivery of targets, and
• address fossil fuel subsidies more systematically, including indirect support mechanisms.

At EU level, closer follow-up and targeted improvements to the Governance Regulation could help strengthen the quality, consistency, and accountability of national planning.