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Report on Global and Macroregional Key Trends and Scenarios


Cassen, Christophe; Meriem Hamdi-Chérif; Myriam Cherbib et al. 2013: Milesecure 2050 Deliverable 1.2 - Report on Global and Macroregional Key Trends and Scenarios. SMASH, Paris.

Christophe Cassen (SMASH)
Meriem Hamdi-Chérif (SMASH)
Myriam Cherbib (SMASH)
Jean Charles Hourcade (SMASH)
Zygmunt Parczewski (IEN)
Adam Umer (EnergSys)
Gabriele Quinti (LSC)
118 S.

1. Executive summary
2. Introduction
3. Macro-economic scenarios: approach and methodology
3.1 Presentation of the scenarios set and models
3.1.1 Modeling exercises considered
3.1.2 Types of models
3.1.3 Structure of the scenarios
3.2 Socio-Economic drivers
3.2.1 Population growth
3.2.2 Macro-economic development
3.2.3 Energy Intensity
3.3 Technical change: deployment of technologies
3.4 Energy and carbon prices
3.4.1 Oil reserves/resources
3.4.2 Emission pathways
4. Features of the low carbon and energy transition given climate constraints (globally and by sector)
4.1 The low carbon transition requires significant transformations of the energy system
4.1.1 Global changes in the Energy mix
4.1.2 Regional potentials of RES
4.1.3 Sectoral changes in the Energy supply
4.2 The LCS vision is achievable under modeling technological options
4.3 A transition associated with moderate average global costs
4.4 The three flexibilities
5. Regional perspectives
5.1 OECD countries
5.2 The “giants”: India and China
6. A basic vision of transition dynamics for assessing the interactions between climate policies and energy security issues?
6.1 A climate and technology-centric drift
6.2 Second best world or Second best policies?
6.3 Co-benefits and trade-offs between climate policies and energy security
7. Conclusions
8. Annexes
9. Abbreviations
10. References